Slightly brisker grain traffic from Ukraine makes small-tonnage owners more bullish in Black Sea

With slightly brisker grain traffic from Ukrainian ports, owners of small-tonnage fleet are getting more bullish, voicing ideas $2-3/t above last-done levels. However, charterers successfully resist, holding fixing rates almost unchanged. At the moment:

• Most charterers still target $27-28/t for shipment of 3-6,000 t of wheat from Odesa or Chornomorsk to Marmara, while owners are seeking to get more than $30/t (equivalent to $1.6-1.8k daily vs. $2k+ daily bss RV for a 3k dwcc vessel in case of $15-20k of AWRP);
• The deal for transportation of about 6,000 t of meal (sf 56-58`) from Pivdennyi to Izmir is discussed at high $30s/t given 2000x/1500x l/d rates, which corresponds to low $30s/t bss 7,000 t of heavy grain and is equivalent to quite strong $4.4-4.6k daily bss RV in case of $25-30k of AWRP;
• 6,000 t of wheat are offered for shipment from Odesa to EC Greece at $30/t with 2500x/2000x l/d rates, which is equivalent to $2.9-3.2k daily bss RV in case of $20-25k of AWRP;
• Traders target $34/t for transportation of 6,000 t of wheat from Pivdennyi to Cyprus with 1500x/2000x l/d rates, which means $2.8-3k daily bss RV in case of $20-25k of AWRP;
• Charterers are ready to pay $37-38/t for shipment of 5-6,000 t of barley from Odesa to Famagusta given 1000 sshex bends l/d rates and early March laycans, which gives the TCE of $2.4-2.7k daily bss RV in case of $25k of AWRP;
• Other charterers offer mere $31/t for transportation of 8,000 t of corn (sf 51-52`) from Odesa to EgyptMed with 1500 sshex bends l/d rates, which hardly reaches even $2k daily bss RV in case of $35k of AWRP and $2.3k daily bss RV in case of $25k of AWRP.

As for westward traffic:

• The deal for transportation of 6,000 t of wheat from Odesa to the Italian Adriatic is discussed at very low $40s/t given 2000 sshex bends l/d rates and early March laycans, which reaches $3.8k daily bss RV in case of $20-25k of AWRP;
• Meanwhile, traders target $31/t for shipment of 12,000 t of wheat from Chornomorsk to the Italian Adriatic with 2000 sshex bends l/d rates and 2H March laycans (equivalent to $4-4.1k daily bss RV in case of $35-40k of AWRP and to $3.7-3.8k daily in case of $45-50k of AWRP);
• Charterers are ready to pay $55-56/t for transportation of 7,000 t of meal (sf 57-58`) from Chornomorsk to SpanMed with 2000 sshex bends l/d rates, which exceeds $5k daily bss RV even in case of $45-50k of AWRP;
• Other traders offer mere $48-49/t for shipment of 6,500 t of agri products (sf 54-55`) from Odesa to Morocco with 1000 sshex bends l/d rates and early March laycans, which hardly reaches even $2k daily bss RV and is equivalent to around $3k daily bss dely Marmara redel WMed in case of 25-30k of AWRP;
• Brokers suggest slightly more than $50/t for transportation of up to 8,000 t of meal (sf 49`) from POC to the French Bay given 2500x/2000x l/d rates and late February laycans;
• 10,000 t of corn are offered for shipment from Pivdennyi to Gijon at mere $40/t with 3000 sshex bends l/d rates and early March laycans.

In the segment for shipments ex Danube ports:

• The deal for transportation of 5,000 t of soybeans (sf 50-51`) from Izmail to Alexandria with 1250 sshex bends l/d rates is discussed at $39-40/t (equivalent to $3-3.3k daily bss RV given 4-5 days of waiting time for in + out and no AWRP required);
• 8-9,000 t of corn are offered for shipment from Izmail to EgyptMed at $35/t given 1500 sshex bends l/d rates (means $3.5-3.8k daily bss RV for a 10k dwcc vessel);
• Charterers are ready to pay $36/t for transportation of 5,500 t of corn (sf 50`) from Reni to EgyptMed with 1200 sshex bends l/d rates and late February laycans, which is equivalent to $2.5-2.7k daily bss RV;
• Other charterers target $34/t for shipment of 6,000 t of wheat from Izmail to Egypt with 1250 sshex bends l/d rates and early March laycans, while owners are seeking to get closer to $40/t (equivalent to $2.6-2.8k daily vs. $3.3-3.7k daily bss RV);
• Moreover, some traders offer mere $32/t for transportation of 5-6,000 t of corn (sf 49`) from Izmail to Alexandria with 1500x/1250x l/d rates and early March laycans, but they will hardly find a vessel below $37/t;
• Owners are seeking to get $46-47/t for shipment of up to 6,000 t of barley from Reni to Tunisia, while charterers are ready to pay at best $41-42/t;
• As for smaller cargo lots, charterers are ready to pay $35/t for transportation of 3,000 t of rapeseeds (sf 54-55`) from Reni to EC Greece given 1000 sshex bends l/d rates (equivalent to $1.8-2k daily bss RV);
• Other traders offer $33-34/t for shipment of 3,000 t of corn from Izmail to Crete;
• The deal for transportation of 3,000 t of sfs (sf 85`) from Giurgiulesti to Marmara is negotiated at mid-high $40s/t, which corresponds to high $20s/t bss 5-5,500 t of heavy grains.

As for non-grain cargoes from Ukraine:

• 3,300 t of steels are carried from Izmail to EC Greece at $38/t bss 1/2, which gives the TCE of $1.9-2.1k daily bss RV;
• The contract for shipment of 6,000 t of clay from Reni to Aliaga has been concluded at around $35/t given 2000c/2000x l/d rates, which exceeds $4.5k daily bss RV.

The cargo traffic from EU ports, Turkey and Georgia remains extremely limited:

• The deal for shipment of 5-6,000 t of meal (sf 54`) from Bulgaria to Israel has been signed at $37.5/t given 1500 sshex bends l/d rates and late February laycans, which is equivalent to $3.4-3.6k daily bss RV given $8-10k of AWRP in Israel;
• Charterers target $27-28/t for transportation of 3,000 t of wheat from Medgidia (Romania) to Mersin with 1500x/1000x l/d rates (equivalent to $1.4-1.5k daily bss RV);
• Exporters are ready to pay low $50s/t for shipment of 6,000 t of agri products (sf 58`) from Constanta to N.Spain;
• The contract for transportation of 5,000 cub m of MDF from Burgas to Algeria is discussed at $175-185k bss lumpsum for an about 5k dwcc vessel;
• Charterers are ready to pay very strong $32/t for shipment of 5,500 t of wheat from Eregli to Bari with 1500 sshex bends l/d rates and late February laycans (equivalent to $3.2-3.3k daily bss RV);
• 6,000 t of bulk urea (sf 51`) are offered for transportation from Poti to Chornomorsk at $28/t.

As for shipments from Russia:

• Owners are seeking to get low-mid $20s/t for transportation of 5,500 t of steel from Novorossiysk to Marmara, while charterers insist on last done levels of $19-19.5/t (equivalent to $3.8-4.3k daily vs. $2.6-2.8k daily bss RV for vessels with no AWRP required);
• Brokers suggest $15.5-16/t for shipment of 6-7,000 t of coal from Novorossiysk to TBS and very high $20s/t for transportation of up to 8,000 t of bulk fertilizers from Tuapse to Iskenderun.