Handysize/Supramax rates keep sliding down in Black Sea despite brisker activity

Despite the fact that more cargo offers have emerged on the market this week, large-tonnage freights remain under pressure in the Black and Mediterranean Seas. Market players report a further increase in 2H January tonnage list, while most of fresh offers are for forward dates. At the moment:

• Several inter-Med deals for 33-35k dwt vessels bss dely passing Canakkale via CVB are discussed at $8.5-9k daily;
• Early in the week, a 34.5k dwt carrier was chartered at $11k daily bss dely APS Constanta redel WMed, which corresponds to $9k daily bss dely psg Canakkale;
• The deal for a 37k dwt ship bss dely passing Canakkale via CVB redel ARAG has been signed at $8.5k daily;
• Charterers already target below $7k daily for a standard Handy vessel bss DOP dely EMed redel ECSA, but owners are seeking to get at least $8k daily;
• The deal for a 37k dwt carrier bss DOP dely EMed via BlSea redel USG has been signed at around $9k daily.

• Supramax rates for shipments from EMed to WAfr have even inched down below $12k daily;
• Front-haul rates for Supramax fleet (for non-Ukrainian and non-Russian biz) are hovering at $21-22k daily;
• A 63k dwt Ultra carrier has been chartered at $23k daily bss dely passing Canakkale via Constanta redel S.Korea;
• Supra owners are seeking to get at least $11k daily for cement trips bss APS dely Turkey redel USG.

As for so called premium trips:

• Brokers suggest $17-18k daily for Handysize shipments via Ukraine (bss dely Marmara) towards Med and $10-11k daily via Russia for same;
• Panamax owners are seeking to get $36-37k daily for coal runs via Russia to India and $34-35k daily for grain runs via Ukraine to China bss dely Port Said; however, charterers target $3-4k daily less.

Ukrainian and Russian grains remain the most popular cargoes on the voyage-basis market:

• Charterers offer $38/t for shipment of 27,000 t of corn (sf 51`) from Chornomorsk to SpanMed with 8,000x/5,000x l/d rates and 20-24 January laycans, which is equivalent to $17.5-18k daily bss dely psg Canakkale in case of $200k of EWRI + crew bonus and $2k less in case of $250k of EWRI + crew bonus;
• Other charterers target $37/t for transportation of 30,000 t of corn (sf 52`) from POC to SpanMed with 8,000x/7,000x l/d rates and 2H January laycans, which gives the TCE of $19.7-20k daily bss dely psg Canakkale in case of $230k of EWRI + crew bonus;
• The deal for shipment of 25-30,000 t of corn from POC to EgyptMed has been signed at mid-$30s/t (equivalent to $16.5k-18.5k daily bss dely psg Canakkale);
• Traders are ready to pay $40-41/t for transportation of 30-35,000 t of wheat from Chornomorsk to Israel with 7,000x/5,000x l/d rates and 2H January laycans;
• The deal for shipment of 35,000 t of agri products (sf 54`) from Odesa to ARAG ports has been signed at mid-high $40s/t given 6,000x/7,000x l/d rates and late January laycans, which means around $21k daily in TCE bss dely psg Canakkale in case of 300k of EWRI + crew bonus;
• Brokers suggest $65-70/t for transportation of 25-30,000 t of grain from Ukraine to Iran with 8,000x/5,000x l/d rates and 20-25 January laycans and even more than $70/t for shipment of 22-23,000 t of wheat from Novorossiysk to Kolkata with 5,000x/3,000x l/d rates;
• The deal for shipment of 25-30,000 t of wheat from Kavkaz roads to Libya with 7,000x/3,000x l/d rates and late January laycans is discussed at mid-high $20s/t (equivalent to $11-12.5k daily bss dely psg Canakkale);
• Transportation of 50,000 t of wheat from Novorossiysk to EgyptMed with 8,000x/7,000x l/d rates and mid-January laycans is estimated by ISM at $19-20/t.

As for EU grains:

• The deal for transportation of 30,000 t of corn from CVB to SpanMed with usual 8,000 sshex bends l/d rates is discussed at $18-18.5/t, which gives the TCE of $9.8-10.5k daily bss dely psg Canakkale;
• Traders offer slightly more than $14/t for shipment of 30,000 t of wheat from CVB to EgyptMed with 8,000x/5,000x l/d rates and February laycans, which is equivalent to $9k daily bss dely psg Canakkale;
• Other traders target below $15/t for spot transportation of 25,000 t of wheat from Bulgaria to EgyptMed with 7,000x/5,000x l/d rates, which hardly reaches even $8.5k daily bss dely psg Canakkale;
• The deal for forward shipment of 30,000 t of wheat from CVB to Algeria with a 2,500 sshex discharge rate and March laycans is negotiated at low $20s/t (equivalent to $10.5-11.5k daily bss dely psg Canakkale);
• Up to 20,000 t of wheat are offered for transportation from EC Greece to the Adriatic Sea at $17/t given 3,000x/4,000x l/d rates, which gives the TCE of $8-8.5k daily bss dely Aegean;
• Charterers target $22/t for shipment of 60,000 t of wheat from Constanta to Aqaba with 10,000x/5,000x l/d rates and March laycans (hardly reaches even $18k daily in TCE bss dely psg Canakkale).

As for other cargoes:

• Charterers target $15-16/t for shipment of 25,000 t of coal from Novorossiysk to Marmara with 8,000c/4,000x l/d rates, while owners are seeking to get at least $17/t (equivalent to $11-11.5k daily vs. $13k daily bss dely psg Canakkale for vessels with no EWRI required or $3k less in case of $70k of EWRI);
• Brokers suggest low $30s/t for transportation of 20,000 t of steel billets from Novorossiysk to Tunisia given 4000x/2,000x l/d rates;
• Carrying 25,000 t of bulk minerals from Gulluk to Ravenna with rather quick shinc l/d rates is estimated by ISM at $10-11/t;
• 25,000 t of NPK are shipped from Ravenna to Tema at mid-$30s/t with 4,000x/2,000c l/d rates, which is equivalent to $11k daily bss DOP dely Adriatic;
• Brokers suggest very high $30s/t for transportation of 50,000 t of phosphates from Annaba to Karachi with 15,000x/4,000x l/d rates and 12-15 January laycans.