Black Sea small-tonnage market: spot rates from Danube ports remain under pressure

ISM sources still note a slight surplus of open vessels in the Black Sea despite adverse weather conditions. Spot freight rates ex Danube ports remain under pressure, while those for 2H Dec laycans look stronger:

• The deal for spot shipment of 6,000 t of wheat from Reni or Izmail to Alexandria is discussed at $37/t, which is equivalent to $2.5-2.7k daily bss RV given 7 days of waiting time for passage in on owner’s acct and incl. 5-7 days of delays for passage out for vessels with no AWRP required (or $2.8-3.2k daily bss RV for vessels open inside Danube, or $4-4.3k daily bss dely Danube redel EMed);
• 2,600 t of corn are carried from Reni to Alexandria at $38/t, which hardly reaches even $1.2k daily bss RV, but exceeds $1.7k daily for vessels open inside Danube bss RV;
• Some traders offer $35/t for transportation of up to 5,000 t of wheat on a similar route with 1,500 sshex bends l/d rates, which means mere $2.2-2.4k daily in TCE bss RV;
• Meanwhile, the level of low $40s/t is so far the best seen from owners for shipment of 5-7,000 t of wheat or corn from Reni or Izmail to Egypt with 2H December laycans, which means more than $3k daily bss RV;
• Brokers suggest low $40s/t for transportation of 4,500 t of barley (sf 54`) from Izmail to Tunisia with 1,250 sshex bends l/d rates and 7-10 December laycans;
• Charterers offer $27/t for shipment of 3,000 t of wheat from Izmail to Marmara with 1,000 sshex bends l/d rates, early December laycans and 6 days free in Sulina, which is equivalent to mere $1.2-1.3k daily bss RV incl. 5-7 days of delays for passage out, but could reach $1.7k daily bss RV in case the vessel is open within the Danube;
• Other traders are ready to pay at best $33/t for transportation of 3,000 t of barley (sf 53`) from Izmail to EC Greece with 4-7 December laycans, 1,000 sshex bends l/d rates and 6 days free at Sulina entrance, which is equivalent to $1.2k daily bss RV.

Rates from Ukrainian deep-sea ports have also inched down:

• Charterers are ready to pay $40/t for shipment of 12,000 t of corn from Chornomorsk to EgyptMed with 8,000x/4,000x l/d rates, which gives the TCE of around $10k daily bss RV in case of $100k of AWRP + crew bonus and $5.7-6k daily in case of $200k of AWRP + crew bonus;
• The deal for transportation 10,000 t of corn from POC to EgyptMed is negotiated at $42-43/t, which is equivalent to $5.8-6k daily bss RV in case $120k of AWRP + crew bonus or $4.8-5k daily in case of 150k of AWRP + crew bonus;
• Traders offer $40/t for shipment of 6,000 t of corn from Odesa to Bari with 10-15 December laycans and 2,000 sshex bends l/d rates, which is equivalent to $2-2.2k daily in case of $80k of AWRP + crew bonus;
• 7,500 t of grain of 2 different grades are offered for transportation from Chornomorsk to Haifa at $49/t with 2,000 sshex bends l/d rates and 3-9 December laycans, which is equivalent to $3.6-3.9k daily bss RV in case of $120k of AWRP + crew bonus or $2.7-2.9k daily bss RV in case of $150k;
• Charterers target mere $50/t for shipment of 6,000 t of agri products (sf 55-58`) from Odesa to Sevilla with 5-7 December laycans and 1,500 sshex bends l/d rates, which hardly reaches even $1.5k daily bss RV in case of mere $80k of AWRP + crew bonus, but can reach $2.5k daily bss dely Marmara redel SpanMed;
• Other traders offer $30/t for transportation of 2,000 t of wheat bran (sf 56-58`) from Chornomorsk to Marmara with 700 sshex bends l/d rates;
• Up to 6,000 t of meal (sf 63-65`) are offered for shipment from Odesa to Aliaga at $38/t (corresponds to mere high $20s/t bss 8,000 t of heavy grains).

Freights ex EU ports, Turkey and Russia are mostly moving sideways:

• The deal for transportation of $6,000 t of corn from Constanta to WC Italy has been signed at $31.5/t (equivalent to $3.5-3.7k daily bss RV), while other charterers have succeeded to find a vessel for shipment of a smaller wheat stem (up to 5,000 t) to southern Italy at high $20s/t (equivalent to $2.5-2.7k daily bss RV);
• The deal for transportation of 5-6,000 t of wheat from Galati to Marmara is discussed at $25-26/t;
• Brokers suggest $23/t for shipment of 10-12,000 t of corn from Varna to Mersin;
• Carrying 4-5,000 t of steel from Bartin to EC Greece is estimated by ISM at $17-18/t;
• Charterers are ready to pay $22-23/t for transportation of up to 6,500 t of WRIC (sf 55`) from Novorossiysk to Marmara with 1H December laycans and 2,000 sshex bends l/d rates (equivalent to $4k daily bss RV for vessels with no AWRP required);
• Brokers suggest high $20s/t for shipment of 8,900 t of steel from Novorossiysk to EgyptMed with 2,000c/2,000x l/d rates and 8-12 December laycans, which means $4.7-4.9k daily bss RV;
• Coal charterers are ready to pay at best $17/t for transportation of 5,000 t of the cargo from Novorossiysk to TBS.