Black Sea & Med large-tonnage market on the way to bottoming out

The Black Sea market for Handysize, Supramax and Panamax shipments seems to have finally reached its bottom early in the week. Moreover, the sentiment has started to improve slowly closer to mid-week, especially on the so-called normal market (i.e. excluding Ukraine and Russia):

• Charterers still target $7.5-8k daily for 32-34k dwt fleet bss APS dely CVB redel Med, although most owners are already seeking to get more than $9k daily (note that a large 38k dwt carrier was chartered at $8k daily at the very end of last week);
• A quick clinker run by a 28k dwt vessel bss DOP dely EgyptMed redel Lebanon is rated at $10k daily with late November laycans;
• The deal for a large Handy ship bss APS dely EgyptMed redel ECSA has been signed at $8.5k daily;
• As for larger vessels, Supramax front-haul rates bss dely passing Canakkale are hovering at $19.5-20k daily;
• Supramax owners are already seeking to get at least $14k daily for inter-Med trips bss dely passing Canakkale and $12k daily for trips towards USG;
• A Kamsarmax vessel has been reportedly chartered above $30k daily bss dely passing Canakkale via Constanta redel S.Korea, although most brokers suggest $24-25k daily for front-haul trips;
• On the voyage-basis market, the deal for spot shipment of 30,000 t of wheat from Constanta to ARAG ports is negotiated at $20/t given 8,000 sshex bends l/d rates, which is equivalent to $9k daily bss dely psg Canakkale;
• Brokers suggest $14.5-15/t for transportation of 25,000 t of wheat from Varna to EgyptMed given 7,000x/5,000x l/d rates and very high $10s/t to Libya given 7,000x/3,000x l/d rates;
• Charterers are ready to pay $16/t bss 1/2 for shipment of 27,500 t of urea (sf 50`) from Damietta to southern Turkey + Marmara given 6,000x/3,800x l/d rates and late November laycans, which is equivalent to almost $9k daily bss DOP dely EMed;
• Charterers are ready to pay low-mid $30s/t for transportation of 30,000 t of fertilizers from Selaata to Mississippi bss 1/1 given 3,500x/10,000c l/d rates, which is equivalent to $9.5k daily bss dely DOP EMed;
• Brokers suggest high $10s/t for shipment of 25,000 t of urea from Arzew to Ghent with 7,000x/4,000x l/d rates and 20-25 November laycans;
• In the small Handy segment, the deal for shipment of up to 20,000 t of steel products from Bulgaria to Romania with low l/d rates is discussed at $11-12/t bss 1/1;
• 12-13,000 t of urea are offered for transportation from Poti to Ipswich + Immingham at high $60s/t bss 1/2 with 2,000 shex bends l/d rates.

Freight rates ex Ukraine are back to early November levels after the uncertainty seen during the last 10 days. Thus:

• The deal for a Kamsarmax carrier bss dely Port Said via Ukraine redel FEast has been signed at $33.5k daily;
• Charterers are ready to pay high $50s/t for shipment of 60-67,000 t of corn from Pivdennyi or Chornomorsk to S.China, while owners are seeking to get at least $61-62/t (equivalent to $30.5-31.5k daily vs. $33.5-34.5k daily bss dely DOP Port Said given $500-550k of EWRI + crew bonus);
• Slightly more than 70,000 t of corn have been fixed from POC to S.China at around $57/t, which means $32-33k daily in TCE bss dely DOP Port Said;
• As for the smaller segment, charterers offer $41-42/t for transportation of 28,000 t of wheat from POC to SpanMed given 5,000x/8,000x l/d rates, which is equivalent to $24.5k daily bss dely psg Canakkale in case of $200k of EWRI + crew bonus or to $21k daily in case of $300k of EWRI + crew bonus;
• The deal for shipment of slightly less than 25,000 t of corn from POC to EgyptMed has been signed at $40/t, which gives the TCE of $19k daily bss dely psg Canakkale in case of 250k of EWRI + crew bonus and $21k daily in case of $190-200k of EWRI + crew bonus;
• 22,000 t of grain have been carried from POC to the Italian Adriatic at $45/t;
• Shipments of up to 15,000 t lots of wheat, soybeans or corn from Odesa or Chornomorsk to Egypt or Mersin are discussed at low-mid $40s/t, although some traders are ready to pay even more than $50/t.

As for cargo traffic from Russia:

• Brokers suggest very low $20s/t for transportation of 25-30,000 t of wheat from Novorossiysk or Kavkaz roads to Mersin or Alexandria, although coal traders have paid slightly more than $23/t for shipment of 30,000 t of anthracite from Tuapse to Iskenderun (with 9,000c/4,000x l/d rates);
• The deal for shipment of 30-35,000 t of wheat from Novorossiysk to Djibouti with 20-25 November laycans and 14 ttl days sshex l/d rates has been signed closer to $40/t, which is equivalent to $19-20k daily bss dely psg Canakkale for vessels with no EWRI required and to $16-17k daily with EWRI on owner's acct;
• Transportation of 50-60,000 t of wheat from Novorossiysk or Kavkaz roads to Indonesia or Vietnam is estimated by ISM at mid-high $40s/t bss 1/1.