Freights ex Ukrainian deep-sea ports sliding down day by day as every new vessel successfully passes the grain corridor

06.10.2023 13:54

As fixing activity is rising and players report successful passages from Ukraine’s deep-sea ports, ship owners are increasingly turning their sights to cargoes ex Chornomorsk, Pivdennyi and Odesa. Therefore, corresponding freight rates keep sliding down day by day. Market players report reduced average EWRI/AWRP and several times lower crew bonus asked by ship owners. Thus, EWRI most often amounts to 2-2.5% compared to 3-4% a week ago, while crew bonuses have decreased from $150-350k to $25-100k.

Despite the day-by-day rate decline, Ukrainian exports still allow owners to earn almost twice higher than working from CVB and 1.5 times higher than from Russia:

  • Early in the week, some charterers were ready to pay high $50s/t for shipment of 30,000 t of wheat from POC (Pivdennyi, Odesa or Chornomorsk) to SpanMed, while for the time being, the deal for shipment of 25,000 t of corn on the same route with 8,000x/6,000x l/d rates is negotiated at $54-56/t (equivalent to $37-38k daily bss dely psg Canakkale for a 27k dwt vessel);
  • Moreover, charterers entering the market with fresh offers on Thursday-Friday already target $51-52/t as max for shipment of 30,000 t of wheat or corn to SpanMed, which is equivalent to $36-37k daily for a 32k dwt carrier;
  • Accordingly, a couple of deals for transportation of 30,000 t of grains from POC to EgyptMed were discussed at $55-58/t on Monday-Tuesday, although most traders already aim below $50/t, with vessels being ready to fix at low $50s/t given 8,000x/5,000x l/d rates;
  • Charterers are ready to pay at best $60/t for shipment of 30,000 t of corn from POC to ARAG ports, which means $35-36k daily bss dely pssg Canakkale;
  • Besides, 25,000 t of rapeseeds (sf 53`) are offered for transportation from Odesa to Pakistan at high $70s/t with 3,500x/4,000x l/d rates, which hardly reaches even $25k daily in TCE bss dely psg Canakkale in case of $180-200k of EWRI and $30-40k of crew bonus;
  • On the TCT market, most Handysize owners are still seeking to get more than $30k daily bss dely passing Canakkale via POC redel Med, but some are already to consider $26-28k daily bss dely passing Canakkale and below $25k daily bss DOP dely EMed.

As for larger tonnage:

  • Early in the week, some traders were ready to pay $64-68/t for shipment of 40-45,000 t of rapeseeds from POC to ARAG ports with mid-October laycans, while in some days this or a similar lot has been finally fixed at $60/t, which reaches $46-47k daily in TCE for a Supra carrier bss dely psg Canakkale given 10,000x/8,000x l/d rates;
  • The deal for transportation of 55-65,000 t of corn from POC to SpanMed has been signed at mid-$40s/t, which gives the TCE of $43-46k daily bss dely psg Canakkale;
  • Another Supramax carrier was chartered at $45k daily bss DOP dely Marmara redel Spain/ARAG early in the week, while current rates for similar biz are already hovering at $40-43k daily;
  • A week ago, several front-haul contracts for Panamax/Kamsarmax shipments of Ukrainian grains were discussed at $65-70k daily bss dely DOP EMed, while charterers now target below $50k daily;
  • Charterers offer $67-68/t for transportation of 60,000 t of corn from POC to S.China bss 1/1 given 8,000 sshex bends l/d rates and late October - early November laycans, while owners are seeking to get at least mid-high $70s/t so far (equivalent to $40-43k daily vs. $50-53k daily bss dely psg Canakkale);
  • The deal for shipment of up to 68,000 t of wheat from POC to Indonesia has been signed at $70/t, which means $50-52k daily bss dely psg Canakkale.

There are also some mini-bulk grain offers and even first backhaul offers on the market:

  • Some traders offer $50/t for shipment of 7.5-15,000 t of corn or wheat from POC to Alexandria with 2,500 sshex l/d rates;
  • Charterers are looking for a suitable vessel to ship 3-4,000 t of bagged soda from Derince to Chornomorsk with 13 October onwards laycans and 2,000 sshex bends l/d rates.