Bearish sentiment dominates SE Asian Supramax/Ultramax market

06.06.2022 11:28

The sentiment has switched to negative for Supramax/Ultramax owners working in SE Asia. The cargo traffic on the Indo-India route stays rather limited, with only some coal requests towards China and other regional countries, as well as some nickel ore offers ex the Philippines still entering the market. However, these volumes are no longer sufficient to provide any support to owners given significantly increased prompt tonnage list amid surplus of ballasters from the Indian Ocean. Moreover, note that charterers show more interest in performing shipments in Panamax stems given considerably lower freight rates in the neighboring large-tonnage segment. Thus, Supramax TCT deals bss Indo RV are discussed $7-8k daily below last done levels, while fixing activity is rather limited as charterers do not hurry to show cargoes on the market and wait for further rate cuts. Corresponding TCT rates are as follows:

Reportedly, a 56k dwt vessel has been fixed at $27k daily bss dely Singapore via Indo redel China;

Another contract for a large Supramax carrier has been concluded at $27k daily with same Indo RV basis and June 5-6 laycans;

As for nickel ore traffic, a 57k dwt ship has been chartered at $27k daily bss dely North Vietnam via Philippines redel S.China;

Another vessel of 57k dwt has been fixed at $28k daily for similar transportation bss dely mid Vietnam with June 4-6 laycans.

Meanwhile, Supramax/Ultramax owners are still able to get strong rates for Aussie RVs given the healthy offer of clean cargoes ex Australian ports:

Reportedly, the deal for Ultramax salt transportation bss dely Philippines via Aussie redel Indonesia is discussed at $31.5k daily;

Another carrier of 63k dwt has been fixed on subs at mid-high $30s k daily for grain transportation bss Aussie RV dely Indonesia.

On the voyage basis, owners are seeking to get high $23s/t for shipment of 55,000 t of coal from Aceh to WCI with June 5-11 laycans;

The contract for transportation of 51,000 t of coal E.Kali to S.China has been signed slightly above $20/t (equivalent to $28k daily bss dely Singapore);

Spot shipment of 50,000 t of coal from S.Kali to S.China with 8,000c/12,000c l/d rates is estimated by ISM at $20.5/t;

Carrying 55,000 t of barley from Kwinana to S.China with 10,000x/8,000x l/d rates is quoted by ISM at $48/t.

Similar market picture can be seen in the Handysize sector. Charterers are actively pushing rates bss SE Asia RV down due to increased vessel list in the region, as well as bearish sentiment from the neighboring Supramax market. Note that owners have no choice but to cut offers. However, Handysize rates bss Aussie RV are looking stable thanks to still high demand from Australian charterers:

Reportedly, owners of a 34k dwt ship open spot in Indonesia are seeking to get $28k daily bss DOP SE Asia redel China, but charterers bid at mere $15k daily;

As for Australia RVs, a standard Handysize vessel can be chartered at low $30s k daily for an Aussie RV bss dely CJK;

On the voyage basis, transportation of 27,500 t of alumina from E.Australia to Lianyungang with 20,000c/12,000c l/d rates is estimated by ISM at $70-71/t ($6/t up from last week amid ongoing growth of bunker prices).